USD Trading Outlook (09-09-2014)

AUD/USD The pair came under pressure in Europe’s morning and that pressure remained throughout NY. The pair sat near 0.9345 into NY’s open and was hit right out of the gate. the USD was generally firm and commodities were heavy for the most part. AUD/USD pierced the 100-DMA and 200-HMA before briefly pausing only briefly ahead of the Sep 4 daily low at 0.9330. The USD’s rally picked up the pace after USD/JPY broke above 105.30. AUD/USD’s slide resumed and accelerated as US yields sprang to life and USD/JPY broke above 106.00. AUD/USD hit a low of 0.9279 but saw virtually no bounce. Late in the day the pair sat near 0.9285. There is little major data overnight but traders may see AUD impacted by NAB’s Aug. business confidence & conditions report. Soft readings may see AUD/USD’s slide persist as market positioning remains net-long AUD. Support sits at daily lows near 0.9263 and 0.9235. If those give way a test of key 0.9180/0.9203 (200-DMA, 38.2 Fib of 0.8660-0.9505, May low) is likely.