USD Trading Outlook (15-09-2014)

AUD/USD The market is still in sell rallies mode as Europe smashed a rally from near 0.9050 to 0.9080 early in their session. the sales pushed the pair just below 0.9045 before a slight bounce saw the pair just above 0.9060 into NY’s open. A minor blip up in early NY met sellers after prior US retail sales data were revised up. The revisions sent US yields and the USD higher. AUD/USD slipped to a new trend low of 0.9030. some USD longs taking profit into Europe’s close saw a lift towards 0.9055 but the pair slid again and sat near 0.9045 late in the day. Bears appear fully in control as the pair sees multiple daily closes below the 200-DMA and closes the week below the 50% Fib of 0.8660-0.9505. Day/week RSIs still give bearish momentum. Although they are o/s there is no divergence. Bears now have their sights on 0.8986/95 (daily lows mid-March) and then the March low at 0.8891. Risks for AUD next week are the RBA minutes Tuesday and the RBA Bulletin and annual report on Thursday. It’s likely those events we again note AUD being too high.