USD Trading Outlook (22-09-2014)

AUD/USD Europe rallied AUD/USD off s-t support in the 0.8925/30 area and had it near 0.8965 into NY’s open. A slide in USD/JPY in early NY aided AUD/USD’s further along. The pair reached 0.8995 but ran out of gas. Offers touted above 0.9000 and a recovery for the USD prevented further gains. Intra-day profit taking then took hold and the pair slide. The slide’s pace accelerated and volumes increased into Europe’s close as longs looking to exit on rallies came to market. A new trend low of 0.8920 was then hit. Stops below that level remained untouched. A slight bounce late in the day had the pair near 0.8930 and poised to close below the 61.8 Fib of 0.8660-0.9505. The limited bounces for this pair have those that are still long on edge. CFTC stats are only being marginally reduced. If the reduction persists the March low (0.8891) will be tested. If that level breaks there is little support until the 2014 low at 0.8660. There is no major Oz data due next week so traders will focus on Stevens’ speech on Sep 25 and the US durable goods orders & GDP reports for their next cue.