USD Trading Outlook (16-10-2014)

AUD/USD Europe pushed back against the rally begun in Asia. Offers into the 200-HMA limited gains and the pair slipped towards 0.8725 into NY’s open. It sat near that level ahead of the US econ data as well. The US data had no redeeming qualities about it and that sent US yields and the USD sharply lower. AUD/USD spiked higher and cleared the 21-DMA and Oct 14 high. Weak stops above the latter were run and the pair went on to hit a 0.8860 high. A quick rebound in the USD saw a dip near 0.8775 take hold. A bounce from that level neared 0.8810 but sellers emerged. AUD/JPY’s break below 92.80/90 and AUD/NZD’s break below 1.1030/35 put massive pressure on AUD/USD. The pair dropped to pre-retail sales levels near 0.8715/20. A late day bounce for stocks and some JPY weakness allowed AUD/USD to lift back above the 200-HMA and sit near 0.8770 late in the day. Trades look to the Sep Consumer Inflation expectations as well as RBA Asst. Gov. Debelle’s panel participation at the Thomson Reuters FX Benchmark event for their next cues.