USD Trading Outlook (29-10-2014)

AUD/USD JPY cross buys begun in Asia carried over in Europe’s morning. This pushed AUD/USD up from the 0.8820 area towards 0.8840 into NY’s open. Early NY saw leveraged names continue to buy AUD/JPY & keep AUD/USD bid into US data. The big miss on durable goods saw the USD part of the equation take over the lift. US yields and the USD spiraled lower post-data. AUD/USD spiked up, cleared Asian offers at 0.8840/50, ran stops above 0.8860 and hit a 0.8882 high. The USD and yields rebounded after consumer confidence was well above expectations. AUD/USD dipped back to the 0.8840 level but couldn’t break lower. AUD/JPY rallied in NY’s afternoon and neared 95.75. This combined with rallies in US equity markets had AUD/USD sit just above 0.8860 late in the day. Action overnight may be limited as traders are likely to keep their powder dry ahead of the Fed. Should the Fed lean dovish tomorrow we might see AUD/USD break 0.8900. If that occurs it’s possible a s-t bottom is in place and run towards 0.9100 may take hold.