USD Trading Outlook (05-02-2015)

AUD/USD Europe negated an attempt to break the pair above the 200-HMA. Bears pushed the pair from the 0.7850 area towards 0.7805 as NY opened. Below f/c ADP data didn’t deter bears. They persisted and pushed the pair lower early on. The slide accelerated a bit on the ISM non-MFG beat and subsequent lift for US yields and the USD. AUD/USD hit a NY low of 0.7743 but did manage a slight bounce. IT sat near 0.7765 late in the day as the USD saw broad based weakness late in the day. Traders now look to Oz Dec retail sales as their sole cue for trading AUD later. The m/m reading is expected at 0.40% vs. the prior 0.10%. An above f/c result might see the pair’s recent rally get another boost. Weak results may see the pair make a trip to sub-0.7700 levels again.