USD Trading Outlook (13-02-2015)

AUD/USD While the pair set a new low post-Oz jobs data bears were a bit disappointed in the follow through. A weak USD saw Europe begin covering shorts and the pair sat near 0.7680 into NY’s open. Early action saw hourly support near 0.7665 tested but the dip was bought. The weaker than f/c US data sent the USD tumbling again. Pre-Oz jobs levels were tested. The rise accelerated as US bond yields took a nice dive into Europe’s close. AUD/USD spiked to resistance in the 0.7775/85 zone. A rebound for the greenback saw a late day slide and the pair pulled back near 0.7740. Traders now look to RBA Gov. Stevens’ speech to the House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics. Stevens is likely to strike a dovish tone and if AUD is mentioned it’s likely to be touted as overvalued again. Bear pressure should then return and we may see post-jobs levels retested. If Stevens can’t ignite a bear push a decent short squeeze may take hold.