USD Trading Outlook (18-02-2015)

AUD/USD The 0.7829 high of the session for AUD/USD came in early NorAm trade and after the slightly less-dovish-than-forecast RBA Minutes pried loose some stale shorts. The odds of a March RBA rate cut weakened to about even money, while the AUD-JPY 2-yr spread rebounded for a second day. Prices are close to session highs as we head toward the NY close and also nearing the 21-DMA at 0.7848 and falling. Bigger resistance is the Feb 6 high at 0.7877 and the 38.2% of the Jan-Feb slide at 0.7882. The 50% of the same slide is reinforced by the daily Kijun at 0.7961. AUD/JPY spiked up to 50% of the 97.30-89.32 drop at 93.35, with the daily Kijun there as well. The Tenkan remains below the Kijun but today’s news Japan Post is bidding for Toll Holdings [ID:nL4N0VR3QY] gave that pair an extra boost. Japanese investor are expected to remain looking overseas for better returns this year, led by GPIF, but also with some FDI. LNY holidays kick off tomorrow and are seen dampening liquidity in Asia.