USD Trading Outlook (16-03-2015)

AUD/USD The pair slipped in Europe after the 10-DMA capped any gains overnight. NY walked in with the pair near 0.7665. Bear pressure remained in NY as the USD was firm early on. Short-term support near 0.7640/45 was eventually cleared and the pair’s slide accelerated on that break. Overall risk-off sentiment had JPY strength push AUD/JPY down near 92.30. AUD/USD followed lower with soft commodities putting the wind at its back. The pair hit a session low of 0.7610 and saw very little bounce as it sat near 0.7620 late in the day. There is no major Oz data next week. RBA’s Debelle speak March 16 and is likely to try and talk AUD down if the currency comes up. Traders will be looking to the Fed for the big risk though. If the Fed keeps market expectations for a hike intact even after some soft US data, AUD/USD should remain under pressure. We might then see the March low broken and the pair make a run towards 0.7180/0.7240 support.