USD Trading Outlook (25-03-2015)

AUD/USD Bull pressure applied in Europe persisted in early NY. A soft USD and short covering by model accounts were attributed to the rise. NY walked in with the pair near 0.7900 and sitting there into CPI. Upon the data release the pair initially slipped towards 0.7880. The dip was bough aggressively though and stops above the February high were run. Bullish follow through saw a high of 0.7939 made but the gains were fleeting. A rebound for the USD ensued and AUD/USD sales by US leveraged and fund names had the pair diving. Sour risk sentiment then kept the pair weighed for NY’s afternoon. Support near 0.7860/65 (daily cloud base, 55-DMA) was pressed and the pair sat just above it late in the day. There is no major Oz data due but the RBA releases its FSR. Little impact on AUD is expected though. The rally off the March low is intact but bulls might have some concerns. Today’s high wasn’t confirmed by the daily RSI and a long upper wick forms on today’s candle. A dip back to the 0.7750/0.7800 zone cannot be ruled out.