USD Trading Outlook (18-05-2015)

The FX market remains driven by the Fed’s rate hike expectations: last week’s data disappointed, pulling the US dollar down as traders’ expectations for a rate hike have also cooled down. The prospect of a possible June rate hike, might be finally put to rest as a series of disappointing economic data suggest that Q2 growth, is less impressive than hoped for.

As a result the USD is under enormous pressure against its counterparts. EURUSD ended the week near a 3 month high at 1.1466 (1.1440 at time of writing). Should the price advance beyond the mentioned daily high, there’s scope for a test of the 1.1530 price zone, February monthly high. Support comes at 1.1320.

GBPUSD has cooled off its vicious advance following the UK elections. However the demand for Sterling is still high, despite Friday’s corrective move. Further direction will be data dependent, as UK releases the latest BoE minutes as well as CPI and retail sales. It is widely anticipated that policymakers voted unanimously to keep the Bank rate and the asset purchase program unchanged. 1.5818 remains the recent high as well as the critical resistance that will fuel bull’s confidence.

AUDUSD and NZDUSD opened the week lower. RBA deputy governor Philip Lowe said in a forum that the central bank still has “scope to lower interest rates” if needed. Market focus turns to RBA minutes to be released tomorrow.

On the commodity front, Gold just erased a previous one month high, and reached 1230 per ounce.

Trading Quote of the day: Risk varies inversely with knowledge. (Irving Fisher)