USD Trading Outlook (19-06-2015)

US inflation data missed forecast with CPI coming at 0.4% vs 0.5% estimated. Unemployment claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index were both positive, Philly Fed printing highest index this year at 15.2 vs 8.1 estimated. The conviction of USD bulls are being tested with USD trading weak after strong NFP and retail sales earlier in the month vs more dovish than expected FOMC.

With no significant data release today, tug of war headlines between Greece and its creditors will dominate price action. Here are the dates to watch:

• Today 19 June: Greece has coupon payment to the ECB for EUR58m

• Wednesday 24 June: regular ECB review of Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA)

• Thursday 25 June and Friday 26 June: European Summit – last chance for political deal on Greece

• Tuesday 30 June: deadline for EUR1.6bn to IMF

• Monday 20 July: deadline for EUR 3.5bn to ECB

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 indices closed at record highs (NASDAQ above dot com bubble high) with market finding support from expectation that rates will stay lower for longer.

Trading Quote of the Day: “The next trade is the most important trade of your life” – Marty Schwartz