USD Trading Outlook (25-06-2015)

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Renewed Grexit fears sustained any EUR recovery attempt at 1.1230 mark. Stock markets are also under pressure over the Greek Circus show. Major US indices closed lower overnight and were followed by general weakness in Asian equities since negotiations yesterday between Troika and Greece still did not reach any significant conclusions.

As a result, the market is ranging without any clear direction. USDJPY is attempting higher highs, however trades within a tight range. Sterling paused its 2 day sell off at 1.5690 support.

Data wise, the highlights today are US spending and consumption, initial jobless claims, and services PMI later.

Overall the market seems to be very choppy today with a mild positive tone for USD demand. Situations like these frustrate long term traders and are more suitable for intraday trading.

Trading quote of the day: Never catch a falling knife. Never go against the trend

Green lines are resistance, Red lines are support

EURUSD

Pivot: 1.123

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.123 with targets @ 1.1135 & 1.108 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.123 look for further upside with 1.1285 & 1.135 as targets.

Comment: As long as 1.123 is resistance, expect a return to 1.1135.

GBPUSD

Pivot: 1.575

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.575 with targets @ 1.563 & 1.558 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.575 look for further upside with 1.58 & 1.5865 as targets.

Comment: As long as 1.575 is resistance, likely decline to 1.563.

AUDUSD

Pivot: 0.775

Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.775 with targets @ 0.7675 & 0.7655 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 0.775 look for further upside with 0.7795 & 0.7815 as targets.

Comment: The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 0.775.

USDJPY

Pivot: 124.35

Likely scenario: Short positions below 124.35 with targets @ 123.3 & 122.95 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 124.35 look for further upside with 124.6 & 125 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

USDCAD

Pivot: 1.234

Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.234 with targets @ 1.244 & 1.247 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.234 look for further downside with 1.227 & 1.224 as targets.

Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

USDCHF

Pivot: 0.928

Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.928 with targets @ 0.938 & 0.942 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 0.928 look for further downside with 0.925 & 0.9205 as targets.

Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.

GOLD

Pivot: 1180

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1180 with targets @ 1169 & 1162.5 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1180 look for further upside with 1185 & 1188 as targets.

Comment: As long as 1180 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

OIL

Pivot: 60.9

Likely scenario: Short positions below 60.9 with targets @ 59.6 & 59.3 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 60.9 look for further upside with 61.55 & 61.8 as targets.

Comment: Technically the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50.

DAX

Pivot: 11275

Likely scenario: Long positions above 11275 with targets @ 11640 & 11800 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 11275 look for further downside with 11040 & 10880 as targets.

Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.