EUR Trading Outlook (03-04-2014)

AUD/USD: Tight range in play, waiting for better indication. However, a break below exports bid of 0.9220 could see a follow through to the 200 DMA level, meaning bears would start jumping in again.

EUR/USD: Asian sellers near 1.3820 and other offers ahead of the 21-DMA & March 26 high capped the o/n rally. The pair tested the 200 hour MA but weakness was aided by most of the other major crosses. EUR/USD dropped after ADP slightly missed forecast, pierced through 200 HMA and ran to a low of 1.3753. Very little bounces were seen, the market now will focus on ECB first, a dovish surprise from it would see sub 1.3600 levels quickly.