EUR Trading Outlook (15-05-2014)

AUD/USD: A close within the weekly cloud remains elusive, signs grow that that the rally will persist. Day/week RSIs provide positive momentum and retails accounts (contrarian) are building short AUD positions. A clean break above the cloud base put April high in play. Action for AUD/USD in a Asia may be driven by AUD/JPY reaction to Japan GDP and BOJ’s Kuroda speech. Should both be JPY positive AUD/USD’s rally may have to wait.

EUR/USD: Tight range of 1.3705/30 were played on the pair. Rallies failed to hold above the daily cloud base as offers into the 100 DMA and 21 WMA for spec & corp accounts loomed. The pair could move a bit on BOJ Kuroda’s speech as EURJPY could impact the EUR/USD. If no reaction, then market await for German & French GDP and EZ CPI. Soft reading may lead to a break of support in the 1.3670 area.