EUR Trading Outlook (03-06-2014)

USD/JPY A clear upside breakout in Nikkei futures past its 100-DMA and daily Cloud got the yen selling ball rolling O/N. There was chatter o/n about Japan’s NISA cap being doubled. Rebounding Tsy yields reinforced USD/JPY’s technical boosts from clearing the down TL off the March & April highs and last week’s 102.14 highs. The pair is now near daily Cloud base offers by 102.50 and buy stops above. The Cloud top’s at 102.66. In NorAm trading, Reuters reported on a draft of Abe Third Arrow plan, which was still a work in progress, short on things like GPIF & corporate tax cuts, and long on long-term goals with few tangible means of reaching them. That Reuters exclusive allowed the yen to fall further on the assumption that the BOJ will in time have to pick up the slack from weak structural reforms. ECB’s Nowotny tried to talk the EUR lower again, but EUR/JPY is up near last week’s high after failures the last two weeks to close it below the 200-DMA. The worry is the markets have priced in more than the ECB will deliver on easing this Thurs. AUD/JPY’s at its Cloud top, 61.8% & 50-DMA hurdles. Japan Apr Real GDP was -3.7% says JCER -Nikkei.