EUR Trading Outlook (11-07-2014)

EUR/USD Weak econ data from France & Italy added to concerns over EZ banks and rising EZ peripheral bond yields. Bears pushed EUR/USD from Europe’s 1.3651 high and had it near 1.3625 as NY got going. NY added pressure right out of the gate. The appetite for safe haves grew in early NY. US bond yields sank while the USD and the JPY were well bid. The pair pierced the 21-DMA and hit a low of 1.3589. Aiding the slide was US equity mkts opening near their lows. Macro bids in the 1.3580/85 area aided to stem the slide. After a second attempt to break to new lows failed a small bounce ensued and the pair sat just above 1.3600 late in the day. A EUR/JPY rally near 137.90, driven by a recovery in US equity mkts and bond yields, aided EUR/USD’s late day lift. The pair still remained down near 0.30% for the day though and the technical picture has grown a bit more bearish. Daily RSI has rolled over, a bearish outside day candle is in place, the 55-DMA is crossing below the 200-DMA & the daily cloud base has slipped below 1.3670. This may result in a test of June’s low in the near future.