EUR Trading Outlook (13-08-2014)

EUR/USD The weak German ZEW data sent EUR/USD to a low of 1.3336 just ahead of NY’s open. Profit taking by intra-day names and bids ahead of the 1.3325 barrier stalled the slide. Early NY action saw the USD weak as a large US name was a noted seller of USDs across the board. EUR/USD lifted away from the low and steadily ascended throughout NY’s session. The pair couldn’t break hourly resistance in the 1.3375/85 zone and it sat just below 1.3370 late in the day. Downside risks remain for the pair as the 21-DMA exerts pressure and price holds below the 200-WMA. RSIs have rolled over again and recent yield compression has abated. Data risks may see the pair’s slide pick up speed. Final readings for July HICP and US retail sales data are due tomorrow while Q2 EZ GDPs are due Thursday. Particular attention will be paid to the German components of those data points If Germany is weaker than expected we may see the down trend resume and 1.3295/1.3325 support cleared. The door then opens for a test of the September 2013 low (1.3105).