EUR Trading Outlook (16-10-2014)

EUR/USD Tight ranges held in Europe as EUR/USD hugged the 200-HMA. The pair sat near 1.2640 into NY’s open & pre-US econ data. Below f/c retail sales, Empire Mfg & PPI rattled risk sentiment. US bond yields & the USD sank like a stone. EUR/USD spiked towards 1.2760. Offers ahead of the Oct 14 high allowed for a slight dip to 1.2735. The dip was bought as USD/JPY ran 106.50 stops & dived to a 105.20 low. EUR/USD spiked higher, pierced the 23.6 Fib of 1.3995-1.25005 & hit a 1.2887 high. A massive rebound in the USD saw much of the secondary spike gains erased & 1.2740/45 tested. More fears of Ebola hit the USD. This coincided with BoE’s Weale sounding a bit dovish. EUR/USD lifted to 1.2815 and was aided by EUR/GBP’s rise to 0.8046. A USD bounce late in the day then had EUR/USD !1.2780 as NY neared the close. Sep EZ CPI may get some play overnight but traders look to US data & numerous Fed speakers for their next cues. Any dovish rhetoric or weak econ data likley sends EUR/USD above 1.2900 and opens the door to big res near 1.3000 .