EUR Trading Outlook (06-11-2014)

EUR/USD The combination of weak EZ Sep retail sales &Oct services PMI and broad USD strength saw EUR/USD dive below 1.2470 into NY’s open. Early NY saw a lift even as the ADP jobs report saw a topside surprise. USD bulls emerged though as EUR/USD neared 1.2510 & USD/JPY pressed on towards 115.00. EUR/USD gave up the early NY gains & went on to make a NY low of 1.2458 after the ISM non-manufacturing employment came in at its highest since August 2005. The slide couldn’t gather pace though as large option expiries at 1.2500 for later this week and the upcoming ECB meeting & US NFP report kept traders from pushing the pair too far in either direction. A lift back to 1.2500 took hold into Europe’s close. A late day sip then saw the pair near 1.2475 near the end of the session. It’s likely the pair doesn’t stray too far from 1.2500 until Friday. The ECB isn’t expected to make any new moves tomorrow so Friday remains key. With large expiries for that day and the NFP due traders will keep their power dry. A big upside surprise for NFP might see the l-t bear trend resume and the July 2012 low will be eyed.