EUR Trading Outlook (13-11-2014)

EUR/USD The pair was buffeted in the 1.2430/1.2498 range as action in EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP drove the pair.EUR/JPY’s descent initially dragged the pair lower but EUR/GBP’s lift post-BoE QIR saw the upper limit of the range tested. The pair sat near the mid-point of the range as NY got going. Numerous tries to take EUR/USD higher were thwarted as solid offers into 1.2500 capped. Market speculation that a CB buying EUR/CHF was unloading the EUR vs. the USD. This saw the pair slip back near 1.2450. A bounce off that area was rejected and the overnight lows neared again after ECB’s Weidmann noted an expansive monetary policy is appropriate and so is the GCs discussion of additional measures. We saw fresh EUR/USD session lows after DJN reiterated earlier headlines that NATO says Russian convoys have been crossing the Ukraine border raising risks of new sanctions. A break lower will put 1.2240/95 support in play followed by the July 2012 low at 1.2042.