EUR Trading Outlook (17-11-2014)

EUR/USD Europe rallied EUR/USD from near 1.2430 & pierced the 200-HMA but couldn’t hold above it. A drift lower saw 1.2445 as NY got going. Sharp bear pressure was applied early after US retail sales were solid. EUR/USD hit a low of 1.2398 before a bounce near 1.2420 took hold. The above f/c TR/U. of Mich report weighed a bit but when it was clear it wouldn’t be enough to inspire another leg up for the USD, longs began covering. This saw EUR/USD shorts scramble to cover. The highs in Asia & Europe were easily cleared before the pair paused briefly near 1.2500. When no serious pullback from that area was seen shorts covered further. Stops above 1.2525/30 were then hit and a high of 1.2546 was made. The USD slide abated somewhat and EUR/USD slipped lower to sit near1.2525 late in the day. Technically the pair looks like it can rally further as a bullish outside candle forms today, day/week RSIs are biased up and we’ll see a close above the 10-DMA. Draghi makes a statement at the quarterly hearing of the Committee on Economic & Monetary Affairs. It’s likely he’ll be dovish and the squeeze may come to an end.