EUR Trading Outlook (26-11-2014)

EUR/USD A tight range held in Europe and the pair sat near 1.2435 towards NY’s open after drifting lower from the 1.2445/50 area. Early NY saw a quick dive near 1.2400 after the above f/c US GDP lifted US bond yields as well as the USD. Fast money and intra-day names were the noted buyers and there was little downside follow through. US yield gave up some gains and EUR/USD began clawing back some losses. The lift’s pace increased as short covering in EUR (EUR//AUD noted buys) saw stops above 1.2445 run. Another leg up ensued after US consumer confidence came in below f/c and US bond yields gave up post-GDP gains. EUR/USD pierced the 200-HMA and hit a 1.2487 high. Only a small pullback was seen as the pair spent the afternoon consolidating just below the 200-HMA. Traders now look to the large amount of US data due tomorrow. Should the result show good econ growth it’s likely EUR/USD get tapped lower. A return towards 1.2350/60 support might then ensue.