EUR Trading Outlook (12-12-2014)

EUR/USD An early European attempt to break Asia’s high failed & EUR/USD dipped to 1.2414 ahead of the TLTRO. The 129bln reported was near expectations & EUR/USD bounced near 1.2465 into NY’s open. Early NY saw bear charge as the USD was firm. The pair slid from the open & the fall picked up the pace after US retail sales & claims were upbeat. US bond yields bounced off recent lows and gave the USD a further boost. EUR/USD slid towards 1.2360/70 support where a series of hourly lows and the 200-HMA sit. Little bounce was seen off the support and the pair sat just above 1.2380 late in the day. There is little major econ data to drive the pair. China’s Nov IP and retail sales data might impact a bit as will US Dec TR/U. of Mich. report. Technically it appears bears are taking control again. The break above the TL off October’s high and the 21-DMA failed to sustain itself & a break below the 10-DMA is eyed. Daily RSI is biased down so a retest of the 2014 low can’t be ruled out. A 1.2360 break bolsters that view.