EUR Trading Outlook (12-01-2015)

EUR/USD Tight ranges held in Europe and the pair sat just below 1.1820 hourly resistance into the US jobs report. Wild swings ensued after the release. The above f/c NFP saw the pair spike down initially but the average hourly earnings miss was noted and the pair bounced towards 1.1830. Sellers emerged and a trip down to 1.1762 was made. Further losses couldn’t be made though. The front of the of the US yield market saw rates tumble. This sent the USD broadly lower. EUR/USD lifted again. The pace of the rise accelerated as USD/JPY crashed through 118.75/80 support. EUR/USD took out the post-data reaction high and eventually made a 1.1846 high. Offers into s-t res near 1.1850/60 capped the gains but little pullback was seen as the pair sat just below the lows late in the day. There is some risk bears might get squeezed. RSIs are deeply oversold and yield spreads are narrowing a bit. Should 1.1860 get cleared stops likely get run. The 1.1895/00 level is then targeted followed by 1.1969/1.2006 where the highs of Jan 6 & 5 as well as the 21-DMA sit.