EUR Trading Outlook (29-01-2015)

EUR/USD opened NY 1.1354 having traded 1.1330-80 in London. The FOMC monetary policy event risk just too great to allow more price elasticity. O/N US building permits data +0.6% wasn’t bad for a December print. No other real data. NY traded 1.1303/62 pre- FOMC and 1.1309/70 post- FOMC. Apparent selling interest c 1.1370 as the next bounce stalled at 69. Bids remain in place near the base, next downside probe stalled at 22. FOMC was pretty much as expected, Fed now “patient” only (no qualifiers) upbeat on economic conditions and labour markets, looking through low inflation and no dissenters. One phrase resonated- if incoming info indicates faster progress toward FOMC’s employment/inflation objectives, increases in target FF range likely to occur sooner than currently f/c. This was a repeat of Dec’s message but the Fed’s upbeat view seems to make it the more likely of the two (opposite if data deteriorates) Thur only US weekly jobless claims/pending home sales but in Europe there’s German unemployment, EZ M3, consumer confidence/ various econ polls.