EUR Trading Outlook (04-02-2015)

EUR/USD caught fire in early NY triggered by an explosion higher in oil prices and a bad miss in US Factory Orders. Shorts were surprised by the steep rise, with many EUR bears who had earlier claimed to be confident sellers never showed up as the pair traded as high as 1.1534. Oil is calling the shots across the marketplace right now (+ >18% from Friday) and tensions are feared to be ratcheting up in the Middle East as Jordan claims they will execute ISIS prisoners previously scheduled for a swap. 1.1650, which was the high on Jan 22, is the new panic spot as the post-ECB move to 1.1100 is coming to be seen as a overreach in an increasingly crowded trade.