EUR Trading Outlook (25-02-2015)

EUR/USD Europe bounced EUR/USD off support near 1.1295 after EG’s Dijsselbloem noted EZ ministers could consider debt relief measures if Greece met all criteria. The pair neared 1.1340 in early NY. It slipped a bit after the EU commission noted Greece’s list is ‘sufficiently comprehensive to be a valid starting point for a successful conclusion of the review’. EUR/USD then sat near 1.1320 pre-Yellen The initial comments were taken hawkish as it looked like a rate hike was still on the table for the June-Sep period. A broad based USD rally took hold and EUR/USD dived down to 1.1288 in no time. Upon further examination of the comments it became clear Yellen wasn’t as hawkish as thought. The USD’s gains quickly eroded. EUR/USD rallied towards the 21-DMA as it hit a session high of 1.1359. Offers into the 21 & 10 DMA and by hourly highs near 1.1363 combined with EUR/JPY’s plunge below 134.55 to keep EUR/USD’s gains limited. The pair then lingered in the 1.1305/45 range for the remainder of the day with it sitting near the upper limit towards the end of day. It appears the recent 1.1270/1.1450 range will hold for the time being.