EUR Trading Outlook (03-03-2015)

EUR/USD Europe rallied EUR/USD near 1.1250 into NY’s open. Upon NY’s open another try higher was made but the pair could only reach 1.1241. Solid offers near old support now turned resistance in the 1.1260/70 area from corp & RM names with other offers lined up to 1.1300 loomed and prevented further gains. A broad based USD rally took hold even after a series of softer than expected US data points hit the wires. That USD rally drowned out conflicting headlines regarding a third Greek bailout. EUR/USD slid towards hourly support in the 1.1270/75 zone. A small giveback for USD gains in the afternoon had EUR/USD just below 1.1295 into the end of day. A light data calendar for the EZ & Europe on Tues. might see quiet markets and give the pair more time to digest last week’s losses. Traders likely don’t want to push to far ahead of the ECB and US jobs report later in the week. The outlook does remain bearish though as long upper wicks have formed on recent daily candles and February’s candle as well. Bearish RSIs and yield spreads holding near recent wides bolster a bear view. A retest of the 2015 low looks likely.