EUR Trading Outlook (06-03-2015)

EUR/USD A tight range held in Europe’s morning as the market awaited Draghi’s presser which detailed the QE program and the ECB’s economic projections. The projections got the most impact initially as algos took control as the headlines scrolled past. The ECB upped their GDP f/c for 2015 & 2016 vs. the December f/c. This spike EUR/USD up to a 1.1115 high. Draghi then went on to say that inflation over the coming months will be very low or negative. EUR/USD began sliding from the high. Draghi’s note to the projections being conditional on policy implementation and a tip to there being some complexities in the bond buying program didn’t inspire confidence in the EUR. EUR/USD dived hard, erased all the spike high gains, cleared the 1.1000 barrier and hit a new trend low of 1.0988. Intra-day profit and an abating of the USD’s broad based rally saw the pair bounce and sit near 1.1025 late in the day. The US jobs report is the next big risk. An upward beat to forecasts should see EUR/USD dive further. L-T bears target the Sep ’03 low (1.0760).