EUR Trading Outlook (09-03-2015)

EUR/USD Europe didn’t wait for the US jobs data to smash EUR/USD. RM names clobbered the pair at Europe’s opening. The pair dived from the 1.1025 area towards 1.0930 into NY’s open. Some USD long covering by shorter-term RM names allowed the pair to lift near 1.0990 ahead of the jobs data. The USD and US yield soared on the better than f/c jobs report as the market now believes the Fed may change their language at the next meeting and July Fed funds futures showing near 25 bps of hikes. The only disappointment in the report was average hourly earnings but the market ignored it. EUR/USD spiked down to 1.0843 before any type of bounce took hold. A small lift near 1.0880 met sellers and the pair then went on to hit the day’s low at 1.0842. A give back of some USD gains late in the day allowed the pair to sit near 1.0865 late in the day. A slew of China econ data and the Eurogroup’s meeting on Tuesday are the next risks for EUR/USD traders. As it stands now bears control the pair still and a test of the September 2003 low looks likely.