EUR Trading Outlook (04-05-2015)
EUR/USD
• Model accts covering shorts bids pair up into NY open, ~1.1270 early NY
• Tight range at onset, ISM & TR/U. Mich misses see spike up initially
• Gains short lived as USD & US yields lift, EUR/USD tumbles
• Macros noted USD buyers, especially vs. EUR, pair clears 1.1185/00 supt
• 1.1175 low, late day bounce sees 1.1190, daily techs suggest pullback
• UK elections & US April jobs data to impact EUR trade next week
USD/JPY
• Surging Tsy yields, despite mixed US data, drove USD/JPY above the Cloud
• Beyond the 120.05 Cloud top, the down TL from Mar at 120.15 was also cleared
• Next grouping of resistance is in the 120.60s & then the 120.84 April peak
• An O/B EUR/JPY had a failed breakout above its 38.2% Fibo & 100-DMA
• GBP/JPY reversed down hard ahead of May 7 UK election & on an O/B failure
• JPY trailed USD & CHF haven rebounds vs high-betas
GBP/USD
• Cable fell over a cent to threaten 1.5263 after UK mfg PMI miss [ID:nL5N0XS0KU]
• Cable remained under pressure as focus moves to tight UK election on May 7
• GBP/USD opt gamma low/ vol high, traders scramble to hedge ahead of election
• GBP moved to low at 1.5115 ahead of daily cloud sup by 1.5095, ends NY at 1.5130
• EUR/GBP moves abv daily cloud top to high at 0.7420, reverses to 0.7396 by NY’s end
• Sovereign demand as well as GBP longs exit pre-election tipped, UK holiday Monday
