EUR Trading Outlook (05-05-2015)
EUR/USD
• Intra-day short covering ensues in early NY as US yields slip & USD lift fades
• Hourly res near 1.1190 caps, mkt seems to be in sell-rally mode
• Steady slide ensues as USD rebounds, pair near day’s low in afternoon
• FT noting IMF threat to cut off Greek lifeline weighs
• S-T techs bearish, RSI weighs & 5/1 76.4 Fib rejection sees downside today
• 1.1065/75 support test likely, slightly wider yield spreads support a drop
USD/JPY
• Golden Week & London holidays left USD/JPY to a 120.00-28 range
• Offers ahead of 120.30 also capped on Friday, while Cloud top is by 120.00
• 2nd-tier US data had ltd impact on Tsys & USD, but yld uptrend is supportive
• EUR/JPY’s month-end EUR & asset bubble short squeeze peaked Friday
• Couldn’t close above 38.2% of 149.79-126.08 or 100-DMA at 135.14/134.73
• FT report suggests Greek at risk of losing IMF funding support
GBP/USD
• GBP/USD moves to low in early NY at 1.5091 just below daily cloud top (1.5095)
• Election May 7, 1-week option vol’s highest since ’10 election
• Light activity today owing to Holiday keeps GBP/USD on offer, hovers near Fri low
• EUR/GBP struggles to extend bull run, 7353-7397, bear biased
• Polls continue to paint hung parliament to Thurs UK polling picture
• Cross ends NY by low of day IMF ire at Greek deficit weighs on EUR
