EUR Trading Outlook (06-05-2015)

EUR/USD
• Daily cloud top pierced in Europe’s morning but little follow through
• EU ups 2015 Europe area GDP & CPI f/c, shorts cover, ~1.1130 at NY open
• Bad US trade data hits USD, more shorts cover, ISM beat doesn’t help USD
• USD slide persists even as US Tsy yields rise, EUR/USD to 1.1223 high
• Good res at 1.1225, break eyes 1.14, techs lean a bit bullish
• EZ services PMIs to impact tomorrow, if upbeat more EUR strength likely

USD/JPY
• Huge US Trade gap pulled USD/JPY away from 120.51 high
• No new high on strong Services ISM & P/T triggered sub 120 sell stops
• Low 119.72 held above Kijun at 119.67; Cloud base & 100-DMA at 119.34 key
• Yield spread rise & N225 fall at odds, both victims of P/T in inflated assets
• EUR/JPY rally stalled by 100-DMA so far. ADP & Yellen speech key Wed
• AUD/JPY shrugs off RBA cut (last one?); GBP/JPY wobbling into May 7 vote

GBP/USD
• Cable found bids by 1.5088 after weak UK cons PMI
• Fri’s Mfg miss pressed on GBP as well, 1.5095= daily cloud top, 1.5091 Mon low
• UK svcs PMI Wed, opt int circa 1.5170, res 1.5229 daily Tenkan line
• EUR/GBP to pre-UK data low 0.7316 on Greek concerns, ends NY by high at 0.7378
• Cross rallies as EZ equity slide sees EUR shorts cover, DAX/CAC-40 off >2%