EUR Trading Outlook (11-05-2015)
EUR/USD
• Choppy action into NFP, ~1.1210 pre-data, extremely whippy action post-data
• Miss on NFP & AHE see quick USD sell-off, pair spikes to 1.1290
• Counterintuitive USD move takes hold & spike gains erased, 1.1175/80 tested
• US yield slip intensifies & USD follows & EUR/USD towards 1.1280
• Remainder of day sees steady slide as USD drop abates
• Pair sub-100 DMA into w/e & threatening 10-DMA & May 7 low
USD/JPY
• USD/JPY’s rebound fm Thur’s lows was reversed by slightly soft Jobs data
• 120.24 high by the NFP print, followed by reversion to 10-DMA by 119.60
• Tsy yield drop overpowered the rebound in N225 futures
• EUR sales, as EA asset prices rebound/hedging subsides, hit EUR/JPY
• 100-DMA by 134.10 low, but O/B signals & re-risking flows dominate
• GBP/JPY yanked higher by shock UK vote result: 185 key on close
GBP/USD
• Cable held on to Tory election-related gains settled by 1.5410 ahead of US NFP
• NFP came in as f/c, revisions to NFP & weak avg earnings pushed GBP to 1.5355
• US yields settled lower by PM fix lifting GBP/USD to 1.5460 as NY session ends
• EUR/GBP moved lower as the focus shifts back to diverging outlook for EZ-UK
• Tory victory adds Brexit concerns to growing list of EZ woes
• EUR/GBP falls through daily cloud, hovers by 61.8% Fib by 0.7256
