EUR Trading Outlook (12-05-2015)
EUR/USD
• Tight range for Europe & NY as mkt awaits Greek news & US retail sales
• Greek talks claim some progress but nothing concrete announced
• Pair buffeted by USD/JPY & EUR/JPY lifts while spreads edge wider in USD favor
• Techs lean a bit bearish as RSIs weigh & pair sub-100 & 10 DMAs
• If retail sales are solid bearish tech view boosted, 1.1050/70 test then likely
• Break of that zone could lead to decent slide, late April lows then eyed
USD/JPY
• USD/JPY bid above 119.34 Cloud base; Tsy yields climb added to rebound
• 2-yr yield spreads climbed to pre-NFP levels after Fed’s Williams HLs
• Japanese exporter offers above 120 noted; more offers into 120.50
• 1.2mln & 2.mln of 120 expiries on Tues & Thur may tamp range
• US Retail Sales Wed the next big Fed policy & USD input
• Fresh Bund yield rise cuts short EUR/JPY pullback via FX hedge unwinds
GBP/USD
• Cable met headwind circa 1.55 after rallying before unchanged BoE MPA
• Rallied above 1.5523 Fri high & Feb 26 high at 1.5554 through Fib res by 1.5570
• Pre election shorts covered en masse, Global yields rise, GBP hikes pushed up,
• Wed BoE QIR in focus, w/ election cleared mkt expects Carney to tip to growth
• EUR/GBP reacts to Greek uncertainty pushed to lows by 0.7141 ends NY by 0.7161
• A move below 0.7117 Apr 23 low eyes 0.7015 the Mar 11 low
