JPY Trading Outlook (13-05-2014)

Yen Crosses: USD/JPY Technical disaster was averted Friday when EUR/JPY’s breach of key supports by 140 could not be sustained into that day’s close. Monday trading was above the 140.02 daily Cloud base and most of Friday’s losses were retraced. Just how forceful any ECB easing in June will be remains a point of contention, attracting some opportunistic profit-taking on last week’s fresh EUR sales and even a little bargain hunting and delayed commercial bidding. USD/JPY took the sour Japanese C/A data from o/n as a signal the BOJ may be unable to rest on its QQE laurels. USD/JPY sellers have also been deterred as prices ran into immovable bids in the lower 101.00s for a third month running. N225 futures & S&Ps headed higher, along with Tsy yields on the eve of US Retail Sales for April out Tuesday. Japan’s GDP is out Thur, but Q1 was skewed by the April 1 tax hike. In any event, USD/JPY looks to have found a base with last week’s lows and now faces another run at the daily Cloud top and upper 21-day Bolli, last by 102.80. Initial resistance is from the Tenkan & 50% of the 103.02-101.43 slide at 102.23, the Kijun, 61.8% and Cloud base at 102.37/41/44.