JPY Trading Outlook (30-06-2014)

USD/JPY NY came in to a lower USD/JPY by 101.40, up slightly from the 101.31 o/n and new June lows. Losses in the Nikkei, after mixed O/N inflation and consumption data from Japan, added to the already sagging USD theme of the day. Tsy yields dipped again, though this time at the front instead of the back of the curve. Regardless, JGB yields fell faster, thus the USD/JPY correlation remains strongest with the Nikkei (futures -1.43% at this writing). Prices are finally headed for a close clearly below the 200-DMA, though some watch the 233-DMA, last at 101.25, as their L-T pivot. Though rumored official bids at 101.00-20 have held and the weekly Cloud top at 101.08 was untested, that top rises to 101.40 on Monday, about where prices are into the close. And EUR/JPY’s weekly Cloud top ascends to 137.88 next week v this week’s 137.92 low, so the margins for tech error appear thin. Monday’s Tankan survey will need to serve up some good news for the Nikkei to get yen pairs out of their recent slump. 100.62/63 are Sep ’13 swing high & 50% of the 95.81-105.45 rise & crucial USD/JPY support. Retail are selling yen, but exporters bids are being trailed tighter.