JPY Trading Outlook (03-07-2014)

USD/JPY Surging Tsy ylds after of ADP pushed USD/JPY above the 200-DMA at 101.75 and inside the 101.70-102.67 Cloud span. Nikkei gains o/n weren’t able to keep the pair aloft headed into the NorAm session, so the ADP lift was crucial. Despite Yellen’s comments downplaying current financial instability risks and the correctness of monetary as a tool to address such risks, Tsy ylds pretty well held their gains and the USD with them. Exporters are said to be offered by 102, but macros were better buyers. The failure to post a close below the 233-DMA the last two days amid moderately oversold daily oscillators and a carom off the lower 21-day Bolli suggest at least a mean reverting to the 21-DMA, last at 102.02 and by the daily Kijun-sen. Reuters’s USD/JPY outlook poll remains generally bullish, with a 102, 105 and 109 the 1, 6, & 12-mo calls. Unfortunately, vols remain historically low and the 1-mo has slipped back from Monday’s minor rebound high. MOF investment flow data tonight, but next week’s will be more important as the first full week of H1. EUR/JPY’s rising along its 200-DMA underside, while GBP/JPY probes its post-crisis highs & AUD/JPY stumbles