JPY Trading Outlook (18-07-2014)

USD/JPY The yen was well bid throughout Thurs, initially on worries about what new Russian sanctions might do and on broader trimming of risk amid Fed normalization notions and stretched valuations in some asset classes. A poor US housing report was being shrugged off with help of falling jobless claims an a decent Philly Fed, allowing USD/JPY to stabilize in the mid 101.00, until word of the Malaysian flight downing triggered derisking and more yen buying across the board. USD/JPY holding above suspected PKO bids in the 100.95-100.25 range, but EUR/JPY has tumbled to its lowest since Feb 6 and below 137.00. This year’s 136.25 low is the next major prop. The cross and USD/JPY look top-heavy on the weeklies, having descended into those clouds and this week’s 101.80 high right at the weekly Tenkan that is below the falling Kijun. Amari sounds increasingly perturbed that the BOJ hasn’t launched QQE2 yet and the Reuters Tankan showed some pockets of domestic weakness. NZD/JPY fell to the broken down TL off the Apr high. AUD/JPY’s probing Cloud & 100-DMA supports. 173.17 key on close for GBP/JPY. USD/JPY vols marginally off record lows