JPY Trading Outlook (18-08-2014)

USD/JPY A sleepy session for the yen was turned on its head in late London trading after the Ukraine headlines began to hit risk and lift the yen. USD/JPY had worked its way up to 102.72 and into the front end of suspected exporter offers stretching up to 103 before the shake-out down to 102.13 session lows, by the 21- & 100-DMAs. Prices then reverted toward the middle of the day’s range, but the risk mood was muddied for the day, making major net gains tough. EUR/JPY’s intraday berth widened to 136.77-137.61 amid the derisking melee, but it, too, rebounded well. CAD/JPY’s morning surge to just beyond 50% of the Jul-Aug slide and July 30-31 highs by 94.48 segued into a post Ukraine-news plunge to 93.51; the top of the down TL from July that prices broke above on Wed. It, too, reverted to its intraday mean. The battered GBP/JPY pierced the 200-DMA support that had sufficed Thur and in the wake of the BOE’s latest tightening dodge. In general, the mkts remain torn between stretching for yield/risk, using the yen as a funder, and running for safety as the risk:reward worsens for holding paper with rising duration. Japan’s July Trade data is out Tuesday