JPY Trading Outlook (28-08-2014)

USD/JPY The expected qtr-end and overbought consolidation of the USD/JPY uptrend persisted on Wed. Japanese exporter offers were touted by Wed & Tues’s 104.16-17 highs along with light long spec profit-taking in the absence of fresh US news to goose prices higher. Few are willing to take on the 104.50 option barrier that stopped Monday’s rally in its tracks at 104.49, at least not before getting a bead on key Japanese and EZ econ data due out at week’s end. Friday will also bring US regional PMI results for Aug as a leading indicator for those timing Fed policy normalization. A Reuters poll shows the mkt split on whether the BOJ will up QQE this year. Bids are into Tues’s 103.75 low and mixed by Monday’s 103.50 low. 38.2% Fibo & daily Tenkan support are at 103.35/31. Yen crosses were mostly firmer, but Tues’s EM rebound fizzled, while the dollar bloc sizzled, namely CAD, Kiwi and Oz. CAD/JPY surged beyond its weekly Cloud top at 95.90 for a 95.96 high. July’s tries at a weekly closes above the Cloud top failed, so all eyes are on that going into Friday. New low for the week in EUR/JPY below the daily Kijun, but not a close below there yet.