JPY Trading Outlook (22-09-2014)

USD/JPY The Asia stop-run above 109 barriers stopped shy of the 109.50 defense. Recently heavily bought yen crosses, such as GBP/JPY & EUR/JPY, also came in for corrections, weighing on USD/JPY and making the yen one of the strongest ccys on the day. GBP/JPY was ripe for sell-the-news after the Sottish vote counts came in, while EUR/JPY had completely ignored Thur’s poor TLTRO uptake and was thus a bit vulnerable, particularly after today’s spike high at 141.21 ran into offers by the upper 21-week Bolli and historical resistance by 141. The cross retreated to the 200-DMA, dn TL off the Dec ’13 peak and the weekly Kijun line in the 139.60-80 range; levels it just cleared on Thur, running buy stops in the process. GBP/JPY’s high Thur nipped past the 2002-03 lows in the lower 179.00s and the 180 handle. Some taking long W/Es in Japan into Tues’s holiday, which may have brought forward yen selling today ahead of Gotobi Saturday. USD/JPY’s NorAm dip was bought ahead of the o/n lows, though gains were ltd due to small S-T Tsy yld and stock gains. Japan’s Sep PMI and Aug/Sep CPIs are out on the 25th.