JPY Trading Outlook (21-11-2014)

USD/JPY The late Asia spikes to 118.98 (couldn’t get the 119 barriers/stops above) USD/JPY and 149.12 EUR/JPY peaks turned out to excellent intraday sells. Weekly investment Flows and Trade data didn’t give Japanese stocks a needed leg up: they have failed to make new trend highs since Monday, while USD/JPY been ripping off smart new multi year highs each day since then. This bearish divergence was clearly a drag on USD/JPY today, as was the inability to capitalize on bullish US econ data. One could construe the weekly Flow and Trade data as yen bullish, as Japanese were net sellers of foreign assets, leaving foreign buyers of Japanese stocks and bonds (hedged) doing the heavy N225 lifting, and looking a bit exhausted by it this week. On a more basic trading level, quite a bit of good (yen bearish and N225 bullish) news has been priced in since QQE2’s launch, the GPIF reallocation, the confirmed VAT delay and the BOJ’s 8/1 vote at Wed’s meeting. As good as it gets short-term? Longer term, few want to fight a determined BOJ. Daily candle Harami sells in USD/JPY & EUR/JPY are being threatened into today’s close. No JPY data tonight.