JPY Trading Outlook (26-11-2014)

USD/JPY Profit-taking on short yen trades was widespread Tuesday, as crowded spec trades come in for corrections ahead of the holidays and year-end. AUD/JPY led the descent and is flashing several sell signals heading into the day’s close. For a change, even USD/JPY gave up some ground. The dollar generally looked wanting after an unexpected upward revision to US GDP failed provide the it with lasting support. USD/JPY initially popped to 118.29 on the release, but quickly fell back as Tsy yields remained soft and N225 futures were unable to improve on their London highs. A weak Consumer Confidence report reinforced the profit-taking in long USD positions, though the 117.69 o/n low remains intact thus far as trading interest wanes ahead of the NY holiday on Thursday. Unless there is a wash-out in risk, something the AUD/JPY is intimating, USD/JPY downside will be ltd by QQE2 and GPIF flows. EUR/JPY was rescued by a squeeze up in EUR/USD when Monday’s double-bottom couldn’t be threatened after the US GDP beat. Daily Tenkan at 146.35 offered support. Dailies are wobbling, but the uptrend’s intact while closes are above the Tenkan.