JPY Trading Outlook (11-12-2014)

USD/JPY The O/N rebound to retrace 50% of the 121.86-117.90 slide proved an opportunity for longs looking to get out amid broadening derisking flows. Tues’s lows were finally breached late in the NorAm session, but stops below 117.75, and the 50% Fibo & weekly on-close pivot pt at 117.86, have yet to be triggered. The daily Kijun is at 117.64 and today’s close will be well below the Tenkan at 119.80 for the 1st close below that feature since clearing it on Oct 20. N225 futures are -2.7% at last glance, Tsy yields are off about 4bp front-to-back and the oil-led carnage in EMs and other carry type trades are getting crushed, feeding back into covering of yen shorts. Even US shares are coming off fairly hard, adding more pressure to book profits on previously profitable trades as liquidity wanes into year-end. 38.2% of USD/JPY’s Oct-Dec rise by 115.50 that’s close to the lower 21-day Bolli, will be a prime target on a sub 21-DMA close. EUR/JPY also made a new intraweek low on yen strength that overrode profit-taking on short EUR/USD positions that look ripe for an oversold bounce off the up TL from ’10 & 1’2 lows this week. MXN/JPY led the EM/oil cross carnage today.