JPY Trading Outlook (29-01-2015)

USD/JPY Early EUR/JPY weakness on renewed Greek concerns were followed by selling pressure on the commodity crosses after the FOMC statement elicited a modest tightening tantrum. Any tightening the Fed may be planning this year is forcing a rapid flattening of the Tsy curve as longer term issues are bought. Even 2-yr USD-JPY spreads are falling on the Fed’s fairly upbeat statement. US stocks are again under pressure and dragging N225 futures down with them, though Japanese stocks have been outperforming US stocks recently. Talk of the BOJ and/or Japanese pension funds buying Japanese stocks also noted. USD/JPY is finishing NY closer to the 6-day up TL at 117.35 last. Yesterday’s low was 117.34 and the Tenkan is at 36. 117.25 is the next downside pivot pt. Tumbling oil and commodity prices, along with the post-FOMC derisking, have pushed AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, GBP/JPY and other crosses to session lows. CAD also suffered from negative revisions to last month’s jobs report. Japanese investment flows and retail sales data are on tap tonight. German Jobs & CPI data will add to the EUR/JPY intrigue Thursday.