JPY Trading Outlook (30-01-2015)

USD/JPY A rebound in Tsy yields and US stocks after a huge decline in US Jobless Claims – which may have been skewed by SA – pushed USD/JPY marginally beyond the daily Cloud and the 21-DMA, but it’s a close call whether these hurdles at 118.45/38 will be closed above. The latter hasn’t been closed above since Jan 8. The main difference between today’s trading and the past several sessions was that US stocks rebounded and Greek fears also went into remission, with most of today’s derisking occurring in the commodity/EM ccys amid a broadly stronger USD. USD/JPY faces offers at 118.80-119, with stops above there (119 big expiry Fri). Japan is to release CPI, Jobs, Housing and Vehicle Sales data Friday. Though the BOJ got a jump on many CBs by easing on Oct, others are doing their best to catch up, which may eventually pressure the BOJ to do more. EUR/JPY continues to find support from pre ECB QE shorts booking profits. 61.8% & 23.6% Fibos are at 134.78-79, by the Jan 16 swing low at 134.70 & are key topside pivots. Jan 20 swing high & 38.2% of the Dec-Jan slide are at 137.65/6. AUD/JPY’s threatening to retrace all of 2014’s gains.