JPY Trading Outlook (10-02-2015)

USD/JPY Friday’s stellar US NFPs report produced a run at the daily Cloud top and down TL from the Dec highs on Friday and again in Asia today, but those hurdles in the 119.20s held. That triggered a slide to 118.44 early NY low, retracing 38.2% of the post NFP rally. A late NY break below 118.44 now target props by 118. Greece’s new leader made his first parliament speech; one that remained fully confrontational toward the troika. EUR/CHF fell to its daily Tenkan at the 133.675 low before rebounded toward unchanged. Key EU meetings on Wed and Thur should better define the Grexit risk. IMM net spec EUR shorts increased again last week & German Trade & C/A data were robust, providing some support for the cross. Watch the 21-DMA resistance Tues as its slips below 135 to press the issue between a simple mean reversion correction and a broader retracement to the upper band. Seems like we’d need some good news on Greece for the latter scenario. Consolidation was the main them for the crosses, with commodity-related ccys doing a shade better on higher oil and precious metals prices. Housing & Services data from Japan Tues.