JPY Trading Outlook (13-02-2015)

USD/JPY Damage to USD/JPY o/n on a story about “some” at the BOJ being wary of the utility of a weaker yen (largely a recycling of similar Reuters story from Jan & not a shift in BOJ sentiment) took it to 118.60 in a stop-fest that neared the daily Tenkan & 50% of the Feb 2-11 rise at 118.56. Wed & Thur’s highs were rejected by the dn TL off the Dec 23 and Jan 2 highs at 120.48, creating pullback vulnerability. After a rebound to 119.88 by the NY open, prices slid again, this time on poor US Claims and Retail Sales data that sent Tsy yields lower. A new session low at 118.51 cracked the Tenkan & 50% Fibo, but not bids at 118.50. Heading toward the NY close, prices are below the Cloud top at 119.05, dimming the mood & leaving a bearish engulfing Candle. Weather and fallout from the collapse in energy prices depressed today’s US data, so some are taking the news with a grain of salt. EUR/JPY fell back toward the 21-DMA it cleared cleanly Wed for the first time since the Dec 8 multi-year peak. Decent bounce from there, but the upper 21-day Bolli is falling toward 137 on Friday. The Dec-Jan slide’s 38.2% is at 137.66. Flows data out tonight. Huge expiries up & dn Fri.